The Formula For the Future

Can scientists determine which threatened species deserve the most funding for their protection simply using mathematical formulas? According to the journal “Ecological Modeling”, deciding which species require the most resources and attention truly can be as simply plugging data specific to that population into an intricate calculation. By turning to mathematical calculations, the scientists avoid any subjectivity and instead place their faith in the simple power of math. While this use of mathematical models to predict developments and determine how to best utilize resources may sound effective in practice, the setbacks of this type of model often outweigh the benefits. In this type of scenario, when resources are a factor and there are multiple issues that need to be addressed, more data needs to be taken into account than simply the results of plugging raw facts into an equation.

In coming up with the complex formulas for determining how to predict and manage populations, multiple factors are taken into account. First of all, this specific study deals with the growth, decline, and management of metapopulations. A metapopulation is essentially a population of a species that has been divided into a number of geographically isolated groups. This isolation can a result of natural causes but more often than not is a direct effect of habitat destruction by humans. However, the causes for metapopulations are not the focus of this study. The reason I brought them up is that some of the factors used in the calculations are associated with the number of groups and the characteristics of the places where they are located. Obviously, these factors are very important to consider, but this doesn’t mean that they should be simply inserted as raw numbers in a formula. The natural world is a very dynamic place that is always changing, and therefore environmental factors are not going to be stable and consistent. Therefore, characteristics of a species’ habitat are variables, not constants than can be plugged into a mathematical equation. Their consideration is unquestionably crucial to making an educated prediction and decision, but is important to use these details in logical and educated discussion rather than as a part of a calculation.

In addition to factors such as the physical structure of the ecosystem, there are other considerations in making a math-based prediction. Such considerations include the distance between the individual environments of each group and how that would affect the time for these groups to begin to intertwine and grow. The idea is that with greater distance between and greater isolation of each group, that the slower the species will expand and share boundaries. This seems pretty cut and dry, but species are so diverse that this model would need to be able to account for how suited to migration each individual species is. Some animals would be much more capable of moving between environments than others, and some may be incapable of moving at all. Therefore, a constant mathematical model would most likely be unable to accurately predict the migration and growth patterns of all species.

This story on managing resources and predicting populations can be applied to much more than the natural sciences. Throughout life as a college student, you will have many obligations, commitments, assignments, tests and other events. I have quickly learned that time is by far and away the single most valuable resources during one’s time at a university. If there was a single formula that could predict how exactly your time should be divided, then life would be immensely easier. Such a formula, however, is very unrealistic. From day to day and from week to week, there are unexpected changes to and deviations from what you expect to happen. Time management is crucial, but it never is the same from week to week, and the ability to deal with situations as they arise while staying on top of day to day tasks will do more good than any formula for time management.

Citation:
Multiple Authors, “Special Section: Metapopulation Networks: Simple rules for ranking and optimally managing metapopulations”,, 24 October 2010, Ecological Modelling, Vol. 221, issue 21, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VBS-4YPT4G2-2&_user=130907&_coverDate=10%2F24%2F2010&_rdoc=4&_fmt=high&_orig=browse&_origin=browse&_zone=rslt_list_item&_srch=doc-info%28%23toc%235934%232010%23997789978%232354737%23FLA%23display%23Volume%29&_cdi=5934&_sort=d&_docanchor=&_ct=16&_acct=C000004198&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=130907&md5=6dd657f248888fec5663689055c3906d&searchtype=a